My timelines for AGI, after GPT4 came out
First published on eddiesmo.com on 2023-08-20, five months after GPT-4 was released. AGI here means AI that can do almost everything people can. The original post did not define it; Eddie clarified it in 2026. The probabilities are cumulative: the chance that AGI has arrived by each year.
| By | Probability of AGI |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 3% |
| 2033 | 30% |
| 2043 | 55% |
| 2053 | 80% |
| 2093 | 98% |
That puts the median a little before 2043.
The chart fits a smooth curve through these points. It marks the last one as 100% rather than 98%. The table above follows the original text.
Kept as written in 2023. For how this compares with other forecasts, and how they have moved since, see AGI timelines.